Think of the unwanted outcomes and plan to avoid them.
Invert, always invert: Turn a situation or problem upside down. Look at it backward. What happens if all our plans go wrong? Where don’t we want to go, and how do you get there? Instead of looking for success, make a list of how to fail instead. Tell me where I’m going to die, that is, so I don’t go there.
— Charlie Munger
The inversion mental model challenges you to have the courage to think of your unwanted outcomes. By knowing all of the scenarios, you will be prepared and armed with the confidence to shoot any moons.
You may see the applications of this model everywhere.
For example, in the book Inspired, Marty Cagan mentions that tackling risks upfront is one of the traits of high-performance product teams. Those teams always consider value, usability, feasibility, business viability risks before deciding to build anything.
In strategy planning, some executives use the name TOWS analysis instead of SWOT analysis to emphasise the importance of analysing the external factors first, especially threats.
In meditation, people even meditate about death to live life to the fullest.
Ray Dalio also tweeted a similar idea: ‘If you’re not worried, you need to worry. And if you’re worried, you don’t need to worry’.
He means: ‘if you worry about something dangerous, you will take the necessary precautions and protect yourself so you don’t have to worry. However, if you don’t worry about something risky, you will not take those precautions, which will be more dangerous.’
What can you do when you have no worries? Full speed ahead.